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October 9th, 2007


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11:50 am - And then there were four
Yes, this is basically what I wanted. I could have stood to see the Yankees win last night and force a game 5 and then lose, but I'm okay with this. Yes, I know the Yankees are decimated (like the Angels? What's your point, caller?) and would provide an easier win (although I dispute that after I run some numbers and concepts below), but the tension between Yankees fans and Red Sox is just too annoying to deal with. I think it's a distraction. I'd rather just have a game be a game. Yes, the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry provides amusing moments, but, and this may be selfish, I haven't been sleeping well, and I would like the games to end at decent times so I can get some sleep next week.


Lets look at some numbers, shall we?

Red Sox -vs- Yankees
Date Time (hours) W/L
4/20 3:15 W
4/21 3:26 W
4/22 3:34 W
4/27 3:56 W
4/28 3:25 L
4/29 3:11 W
5/21 3:28 L
5/22 3:22 W
5/23 2:59 L
6/1 3:53 L
6/2 3:39 W
6/3 4:04 L
8/28 3:11 L
8/29 3:26 L
8/30 3:01 L
9/14 4:43 L
9/15 3:37 W
9/16 3:10 L
--------------------------------
18 Avg time: 3.29 8/10
Min: 2:59
Max: 4:43

Red Sox -vs- Cleveland
5/28 3:15 W
5/29 2:56 W
5/30 3:34 L
7/23 3:16 W
7/24 2:53 W
7/25 2:45 L
7/27 3:15 W
---------------------------------
7 Avg time: 3:07 5/2
Min: 2:45
Max: 3:34

Check my math, as always, but um, the longest game with Cleveland is 5 minutes longer than the average game with NY and more than an hour shorter than the longest game.



While I'm being anal-retentive anyway, and because all numbers are basically useless, this is what happened the last time Boston faced the NY and the Indians in the post-season.

Red Sox/Yankees (ALCS) - postseason 2004
Date Time (hours) W/L
10/12 3:20 L
10/13 3:15 L
10/16 4:20 L
10/17 5:02*+ W
10/18 5:49*+ W
10/19 3:35 W
10/20 3:31 W
-----------------------------------
7 Avg time: 3:47 4/3

*New record
+Extra innings

Red Sox/Indians (ALDS) - postseason 1999
Date Time (hours) W/L
10/6 2:53 L
10/7 2:47 L
10/9 3:08 W
10/10 3:49 W
10/11 3:12 W
----------------------------------
5 Avg time: 3:10 3/2

So, roughly, I'm anticipating 20-30 minutes more sleep per night during the series.


I'm also the opinion that seeing Cleveland less during the year works to the Sox advantage. Their pitchers are mostly ones the Red Sox have faced. Brian of The Writers Radio said earlier in the year that the Red Sox pitchers would get exposed during the course of the year as the batters figured them out. Looking at the change in the Yankees/Red Sox play, I'm forced to agree with him. But if the last time they faced Cleveland was July, that's plenty of time to forget whatever they learned. On the other hand, the Red Sox have a decent handle on Cleveland pitchers, the majority of whom they've seen in years past and hit decently against.

So I think, bottom line, (sorry Tril), I'd rather play Cleveland, no matter how hot they are.
Crossposting to ssnr and maybe redsox.
Current Mood: cheerfulcheerful
Current Music: Robert Palmer - "Simply Irresistable"
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Comments:


[User Picture]
From:thecomedian
Date:October 9th, 2007 04:07 pm (UTC)
(Link)
regarding the NLCS and ALCS, I have mixed feelings. I like Boston to an extent--Nomar was a key reason but then he got traded to the worst team in all the world. Both Cleveland and Arizona have Kentucky natives. I want Brandon Webb to do well for the Dbacks but I also want the Rockies to win it all now that the Phillies are out.

And how about the Yankees?!? It just proves to show that money doesn't buy championship rings. Torre's days as a manager in NY are numbered with Steinbrenner's reputation the way that it is. I like Clemens but he needs to recognize that his days as a star pitcher are over and he will be inducted alongside Randy Johnson when they are on the first ballot together.
[User Picture]
From:hr_macgirl
Date:October 9th, 2007 05:04 pm (UTC)
(Link)
no need to apologize to me. It's going to be a good series regardless!

I'm sure you'll be listening to the first game on Friday night.

Go Tribe!
[User Picture]
From:solies
Date:October 9th, 2007 06:22 pm (UTC)

Behold, the power of math

(Link)
Whew. So checking your math (by your leave, of course) and doing some analysis, we come up with the following data (rounded to the nearest minute).

Yankees, 2007 season:
Average time: 3:31
Standard deviation: 0:26

Indians, 2007 season:
Average time: 3:08
Standard deviation: 0:17

Yankees, 2004 postseason:
Average time: 4:07
Standard deviation: 0:59

Indians, 1999 postseason:
Average time: 3:10
Standard deviation: 0:24

That's a difference of 23 minutes this season and 53 minutes in the two postseasons. But do we have confidence, statistically speaking, that Yankee games take longer? In fact we do. Comparing the times using Student's T Test (yeah, I'm a nerd) we come up with t-statistics of 2.22 (with 23 degrees of freedom) comparing the Yankees and Indians this year, and 2.04 (with 10 degrees of freedom) comparing the postseason times. In both cases, that is good enough for at least 95% confidence.

So you may be confident that your conclusions are correct! (Specifically, you may be 95% confident.)
[User Picture]
From:mdyesowitch
Date:October 9th, 2007 06:32 pm (UTC)

Re: Behold, the power of math

(Link)
Sweet. My math sucks, but my basic conclusion is right!

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