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July 31st, 2005

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10:46 am - Phone Post:
118K 0:34
“So I was thinking about something my Dad said a while ago. I was watching a guy play blackjack and his strategy was pretty much the opposite of my Dad's. My Dad, whenever he wins, doubles up the bet until he loses. This guy, whenever he <u>lost</u> he doubled up his bet, until he won.

My Dad said it was based on the theory that you can only lose for so long. You can't lose forever. My Dad's problem with this theory is it's false. You can lose forever. You keep betting, and you never win.”

Transcribed by: hr_macgirl

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(Deleted comment)
[User Picture]
Date:August 2nd, 2005 01:46 pm (UTC)
Usually after 3 doubles, he resets to his original bet.
[User Picture]
Date:August 2nd, 2005 06:16 pm (UTC)
Hooray for the Gambler's Fallacy! Actually, while it's true that you can lose forever, it's statistically unlikely (in a fair game at least: I don't have a good feel for the odds in blackjack), so if you have enough money to sink into doubling your bet until you win, it seems like you'd be fairly likely to eventually win back what you bet. Of course, any profit you made would be tiny, and if you run out of money before you win, you're hosed.

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